Brazil · Country watch

Lula's Security Ministry, Selic Decision, Dollar Falls

Brazil plans a new Security Ministry, Selic rate decision looms, and the dollar falls after US elections.

Florent Kalfon · 4 November 2026 · 14 articles read

The picture Stable How this is judged →

Business conditions in Brazil remain stable with Lula's new ministry plan and the expected Selic rate hold. The dollar's fall offers a slight cost relief for importers.

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In this briefing Banco Central do Brasil · Selic · Donald Trump · US dollar · Democratic Party · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · Ministry of Public Security

Markets

Finance

Copom expected to maintain Selic rate at 13.75%

low angle photo of white building — Joao Tzanno / Unsplash

The Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) is expected to maintain the Selic rate at 13.75%, according to Folha de S.Paulo. The decision, anticipated amid fiscal uncertainty and a rising dollar, marks a potential pause in the rate-cutting cycle that began in March. Analysts are closely watching the outcome of the meeting, which reflects the economic tension following recent political developments.

Impact Lenders and borrowers face continued high borrowing costs as the Selic rate remains unchanged.

Sources: Folha de S.Paulo ↗, O Globo ↗, AgenciaBrasil ↗

Finance

Dollar falls as US Democrats win midterms

The US dollar fell against the Brazilian real, trading at R$ 5.468, following the Democratic Party's victory in the US midterm elections, according to Folha de S.Paulo. The market reacted to the shift in congressional power away from President Donald Trump, with global stock markets generally rising. The dollar's decline comes amid expectations that the US political landscape will impact future economic policies.

Impact Importers benefit from a stronger real, reducing costs for goods priced in dollars.

Sources: Folha de S.Paulo ↗

Politics

Public sector

Lula announces new Security Ministry post-PEC approval

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced plans to create a new Ministry of Public Security following the Senate's approval of the Public Security Constitutional Amendment (PEC). The amendment, which enhances federal powers in public security, was passed unanimously with 73 votes in the first round and 75 in the second, according to O Globo. Lula praised the Senate's decision and reiterated his campaign promise to establish the ministry, aiming to bolster efforts against organized crime.

Impact Public-sector contractors and security firms may see increased opportunities as Brazil enhances federal security capabilities.

Sources: O Globo ↗, A Tarde ↗, CNN Brasil ↗

Nothing significant reported today in Regulation · Disruption · Internal tension · Safety & health · Companies · Trade.

Also today in the local press

BC decide juros em meio à queda de braço entre governo e o mercado — CNN Brasil
As pressões que tornam mais crítica a decisão do Copom sobre os juros — Veja
Alta do dólar começa a impactar açúcar, trigo e café, que podem ficar mais caros para o consumidor — Folha de S.Paulo
Primeiros resultados da eleição para o Congresso dos EUA elevam tensão no mercado financeiro do país — O Globo
Por que o silêncio de Lula sobre a equipe econômica do novo mandato mexe tanto com o dólar? — O Globo
Podcast analisa cobranças por ajuste fiscal e desafios de Lula na economia — Folha de S.Paulo
Equilíbrio fiscal em pauta — Jornal do Comércio
Vitória não foi cheque em branco para Lula — O Globo

Sources in this briefing

Sources: each headline links to the original article on the publisher's site.

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