Lebanon country watch
Exposure to Lebanon means watching the Banque du Liban and the pound, capital controls and the banking restructuring, IMF and reconstruction milestones, security on the southern border, the Port of Beirut and the airport, power supply, and the banking, real-estate, retail and remittance flows that keep the economy afloat. We read L'Orient-Le Jour, An-Nahar, Al Akhbar, The Daily Star and Executive every morning.
Mixed Latest Lebanon briefing: 3 November 2026 →
Vigilance
No active vigilance flag · rules: Heightened vigilance for staff and travel · Pressure surge · Media polarisation spike
Flare-up watch
Composite of the day's departure scores (z) against the country's own history — internal tension 0.25, safety & health 0.20, agenda divergence 0.20, framing gap 0.15, media attention 0.20; a missing component drops out and the others are renormalised. Calm below 1.2 · Watch to 1.5 · High above. Needs 14 days of history on two components. Method →
Direction, last 30 days
Deteriorating 12 · Mixed 12 · Stable 2 · Improving 1 · No briefing 2
Risk pressure, last 30 days
| Risk category | Level | Change on the previous 30 days (points) | Stories, 30 days | Last signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulatory risk | High | ▲ +19 | 15 | Central Bank of Lebanon Raises Withdrawal Limits |
| Operational risk | High | ▲ +16 | 13 | Electricité du Liban cuts power to public entities |
| Stability risk | Low | ▼ −8 | 2 | Protests in Sidon over UNRWA service cuts |
| Safety & health risk | High | ▲ +8 | 6 | Lebanese Army conducts security operations nationwide |
| Corporate risk | Elevated | ▲ +2 | 3 | Qatar plans power plants, gas deal for Lebanon |
| Financial risk | High | ▲ +30 | 26 | Lebanon Fuel Prices Drop, Gas Prices Rise |
| Trade risk | High | ▲ +7 | 7 | Beirut Port enhances trade facilitation efforts |
| Political risk | High | = | 7 | Lebanon begins 2027 budget discussions |
Pressure index: Normal (+1.1) — driven by disruption
Easing ≤ −0.5 · Normal to +1.6 · Rising to +1.8 · Surging above — the 30-day pressure read against the country's own history.
Pressure = sum of story severities reported by the local press over 30 days (1 minor · 2 material · 3 severe). A press signal, not a credit rating. Levels: Quiet 0 · Low 1–3 · Elevated 4–8 · High 9+ points. In the change column, — = no earlier 30-day window yet. Method →
Pressure over 90 days
Regulatory risk
HighOperational risk
HighStability risk
LowSafety & health risk
HighCorporate risk
ElevatedFinancial risk
HighTrade risk
HighPolitical risk
HighEach curve is the 30-day pressure score of that category, recomputed every day. A press signal, not a forecast. Method →
Attention: Lebanon in the world's press
Yesterday 336 articles · 6% below the 30-day average · today so far 37 · led by the press of Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, Palestinian Territories, Israel
Articles mentioning the country across the outlets we read, vs the 30-day average. Method →
Media polarisation
Normal · 100% of the smaller camp's topics not shared by the other · usually 100%
· independent 83 · opposition 25 articles
Share of the day's topics covered by only one of the two camps read (independent vs opposition outlets; state outlets count as pro-government), from the outlets we read. Media polarisation, not public opinion. Method →
Media we read
11 outlets read every day
- 14March.org · opposition
- Almaner News · pro-government
- An-Nahar النهار · independent
- assafir.com · independent
- Beirut Observer · independent
- Charles Ayoub · independent
- Executive Magazine · independent
- Kataeb.org · opposition
- Leb Economy · independent
- naharnet · independent
- The961 · independent
Cited, last 30 days
- Leb Economy 52
- An-Nahar النهار 50
- Almaner News 16
- Executive Magazine 1
- The961 1
Latest briefing
Business conditions in Lebanon are mixed today. Fuel prices decreased, easing costs for consumers, while the Central Bank's raised withdrawal limits improve liquidity. However, rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions could increase costs for importers.
Lebanon Fuel Prices Fall, Central Bank Raises Withdrawals
Coming up
Previous briefings
- Lebanon Power Cuts, Army Security Operations3 stories
- Lebanon Banks Tax Dispute, Hormuz Oil Risk3 stories
- StableLebanon Power Deal, Beirut Port Developments3 stories
- MixedLebanon Fuel Prices Shift, Maritime Incident in Hormuz3 stories
- MixedPort Worker Strike, US-Lebanon Flights, Oil Prices Drop3 stories
- Beirut Airport Power Outage, USD Gains on Euro3 stories
- MixedOgero Strike, Gold Prices Rise, Budget Talks Begin4 stories
- MixedLebanon's Gold Dilemma, French Unrest, Oil Market3 stories
- US Travel Warning, Oil Prices Surge, Time Change Impact3 stories
- MixedLebanese Exports to Gulf Drop, Central Bank Reserves Rise3 stories
- MixedLebanon Regulatory Appointments, Brent Oil Rises3 stories
- StableLebanon's Army Arrests, Gold Prices Drop3 stories
- MixedQatar's Energy Plan, Dairy Product Ban in Lebanon3 stories
- Lebanon Tax Deadline, Dollar Strengthens, Gold Rises3 stories
- Lebanon Bank Payouts, Branch Closures, Fuel Project Risk3 stories
- Lebanon Security Measures, Central Bank Reserves Drop3 stories
- MixedFuel Prices Drop, ANKR 687 Project Launches3 stories
- Lebanon Shipping Costs Rise, Energy Minister Absent3 stories
- Lebanon Security Alert, Oil Prices Rise3 stories
- MixedLebanon Seeks IMF Support, US Revives Framework Deal3 stories
- Lebanon Tax Crackdown, Dollar Surge, Oil at $1073 stories
- Lebanon Strike Continues, Brent Oil Surges3 stories
- ImprovingUS Lifts Flight Ban, Syrian Acid Seized3 stories
- MixedFuel Prices Drop, Public Sector Strike Continues3 stories
- Lebanon's Public Sector Strike, Fuel Prices Rise3 stories
- MixedLebanon Faces Fuel Strike End, Public Sector Strike3 stories
- IMF Oversight on Banks, Economy Ministry Crackdown3 stories
- Lebanon Fuel Prices Drop, Public Sector Strike Looms3 stories
- Lebanon's Reconstruction, Fuel Strike Impact3 stories
Other country briefings
- Brazil — Selective Tax Set, Manaus Health Crisis
- Argentina — Caputo's Tax Relief; Chaco Floods Persist
- South Korea — KOSPI Drops, LG Energy Solution Profits Surge
- India — Delhi Air Quality Deteriorates, Sensex Surges
- Germany — Schaeffler Closures, Supermarket Cyberattacks, JD.com Deal
- United Kingdom — NHS Merger Rushed, Elizabeth Line Delays
- France — GiFi Judicial Review, Gas Storage Concerns
- Italy — Italy Faces Cyberattack Fallout, Medical Device Payback
- Portugal — Intermarché Cyberattack, Schaeffler Job Cuts
- Turkey — Turkey's Record Exports, Inflation Hits 29.77%
- Senegal — Senegal Budget Rejected, Moody's Downgrades Rating
- United States — Measles Death in NY, Midterms Impact Business
- China — China Raises Forex Reserve, Yunnan ASEAN Trade Soars
- Japan — JA ZEN-NOH Fertilizer Hike, Typhoon 31 Warning
- Mexico — ISR Law Excludes Automakers, Fuel Prices Spike
- Canada — Carney Intensifies US Trade Talks, Edmonton Law Push
- Spain — Madrid Protests, Renfe Strike, Emission Fines
- Poland — Fuel Prices Fall, NBP Board Changes, Chemical Spill
- Netherlands — Ebusco Delays Salaries, EU-UK Ease Brexit Controls
- Russia — Sevastopol Power Limits, Airports Resume, Russia Eyes Sanction Response
- Ukraine — DTEK Plants Hit, Kyiv Power Crisis, SBU Probes Unrest
- South Africa — Election Security Tightened, AGOA Trade Tensions
- Nigeria — NUPRC Opens Bidding, Customs Revamps Cargo Rules
- Egypt — FRA Tightens Rules, Energy Projects Expand
- Morocco — Weather Alerts and Port Modernization Loan
- Kenya — Kenya Halts Family Trusts, Ebola Patients Discharged
- Indonesia — Revised Export Rule, Container Traffic Surge
- Malaysia — Contractor Failures Impact Projects; PM Warns of Security Threats
- Israel — Shekel Weakens, Shin Bet Faces Backlash
- Colombia — Fiscal Law Urgency, Dollar Surge, Electric Car Tax
- Iran — Northern Imports Surge, Car Prices Soar
- Jordan — Energy Efficiency Project and Blue Economy Incubator
- Iraq — IMF Talks with Iraq, PM's Regional Tour
- Syria — Syrian-Chinese Investment Talks, Maritime Disruption Warning
- Yemen — UN Warns on Taiz; Aden Seizes Drugs; Cabinet Reshuffle
- Vietnam — Vietnam's Trade Surplus Grows, Fuel Prices Drop