Japan country watch
Exposure to Japan means watching the Bank of Japan and the yen, Tokyo's economic-security and subsidy decisions, earthquakes and typhoons that halt plants and ports, the ports of Tokyo, Yokohama and Nagoya, and the autos, electronics, machinery, chemicals and trading-house groups that anchor Asian supply chains. We read Nikkei, Asahi, Yomiuri, NHK and Toyo Keizai every morning.
Latest Japan briefing: 2 November 2026 →
Vigilance
No active vigilance flag · rules: Heightened vigilance for staff and travel · Pressure surge · Media polarisation spike
Flare-up watch
Composite of the day's departure scores (z) against the country's own history — internal tension 0.25, safety & health 0.20, agenda divergence 0.20, framing gap 0.15, media attention 0.20; a missing component drops out and the others are renormalised. Calm below 1.2 · Watch to 1.5 · High above. Needs 14 days of history on two components. Method →
Direction, last 30 days
Deteriorating 16 · Mixed 6 · Stable 3 · Improving 3 · No briefing 1
Risk pressure, last 30 days
| Risk category | Level | Change on the previous 30 days (points) | Stories, 30 days | Last signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulatory risk | High | ▲ +13 | 11 | Japan launches new disaster response agency |
| Operational risk | High | ▲ +19 | 15 | NTT Data breach risks bondholder information |
| Stability risk | Low | = | 1 | Lille store of Japan's Ueda affected by French riots |
| Safety & health risk | High | ▼ −2 | 8 | Prestige International data breach affects 5.5 million |
| Corporate risk | High | ▲ +13 | 14 | Resona shifts focus to semiconductor materials |
| Financial risk | High | ▲ +19 | 17 | Japan ready for FX market intervention, Katayama says |
| Trade risk | Elevated | ▲ +3 | 4 | Japan's Exports Boosted by Chips and Cars |
| Political risk | High | ▲ +15 | 11 | Quad expresses concerns over economic coercion |
Pressure index: Normal (+1.1) — driven by markets
Easing ≤ −0.5 · Normal to +1.6 · Rising to +1.8 · Surging above — the 30-day pressure read against the country's own history.
Pressure = sum of story severities reported by the local press over 30 days (1 minor · 2 material · 3 severe). A press signal, not a credit rating. Levels: Quiet 0 · Low 1–3 · Elevated 4–8 · High 9+ points. In the change column, — = no earlier 30-day window yet. Method →
Pressure over 90 days
Regulatory risk
HighOperational risk
HighStability risk
LowSafety & health risk
HighCorporate risk
HighFinancial risk
HighTrade risk
ElevatedPolitical risk
HighEach curve is the 30-day pressure score of that category, recomputed every day. A press signal, not a forecast. Method →
Attention: Japan in the world's press
Yesterday 534 articles · 27% below the 30-day average · today so far 1 · led by the press of Japan, China, South Korea, Israel, Cambodia
Articles mentioning the country across the outlets we read, vs the 30-day average. Method →
Media polarisation
Converging · 77% of the smaller camp's topics not shared by the other · usually 95%
· independent 132 · pro-government 21 articles
Share of the day's topics covered by only one of the two camps read (independent vs pro-government outlets; state outlets count as pro-government), from the outlets we read. Media polarisation, not public opinion. Method →
Media we read
10 outlets read every day
- Asahi · independent
- Business Insider Japan · independent
- Daily Sports Online · independent
- Diamond Online · independent
- JapanTimes · independent
- JIJIcom · independent
- Mainichi · independent
- Newsweek Japan · independent
- NHK · state
- nikkansports.com · independent
Cited, last 30 days
- NHK 41
- JapanTimes 35
- Business Insider Japan 13
- nikkansports.com 1
Latest briefing
Conditions in Japan are deteriorating due to a significant data breach affecting millions and potential FX market intervention. Businesses face increased cybersecurity risks and currency volatility.
GMO Data Breach, Japan FX Intervention, Resona's Semiconductor Focus
Coming up
Previous briefings
- ImprovingJapan Launches Disaster Agency, Tax Refunds for Tourists3 stories
- NTT Data Breach, Quad Targets Economic Coercion3 stories
- BOJ Holds Rates, Tokyo Inflation Surges, Binance Hit3 stories
- ImprovingTOPIX Reform, Unemployment Falls, Bond Optimism3 stories
- Chiba Earthquake Hits, Shipping Costs Surge3 stories
- StableJapan Eyes Anti-Espionage Law, Itochu Buys Dentsu Unit3 stories
- ImprovingSoftBank Resumes Alerts, Yen Strengthens3 stories
- StableTax Cut Bill Scrutiny, Brewer Cartel Probe3 stories
- GMO Cyber Defense Request, PHP Vulnerability Impact3 stories
- Typhoon Hits Okinawa, Japanese Inflation Rises3 stories
- Typhoon Hits Okinawa, Cyberattacks Target Japan3 stories
- Akita Floods, Export Surge, Trade Deficit Widens3 stories
- MixedJapan's Tax Cut Bill Advances, Yen Weakens3 stories
- Weather Disrupts, JGB Outreach, AI Rate Impact3 stories
- MixedNidec Fraud Action, AI Law Review, Weather Alert3 stories
- MixedBOJ Inflation Stance, Cyberattack Disclosures, Tax Cut Push3 stories
- BOJ Rate Hike, Earthquake Alert Error, Rakuten Bond Sale3 stories
- Nikkei Plunge, MUFG Bond Moves, Tax Debate Progress3 stories
- Agriculture Minister Resigns, US-Japan Chip Factory Plan3 stories
- Nikkei Plunge, Hokkaido Storm Warning, BOJ Rate Relief3 stories
- MixedJapan's Tax Debate, SaaS M&A Surge3 stories
- MixedAI Policy Shift, Cyberdefense Demand, Japan-China Tensions3 stories
- Data Breaches Surge, Beer Cartel Investigation3 stories
- StableJapan Cybersecurity Alert, Takaichi's Economic Review3 stories
- SoftBank Cyberattack, Labor Shortages, Takaichi's Policy Shift3 stories
- MixedBeer Cartel Probe, Topix Overhaul, Rail Network Review3 stories
- Times Car Data Breach, Tokyo Child Safety Alert3 stories
- BOJ Inflation Target, Daiwa Data Breach, Typhoon Alert3 stories
- StableConsumption Tax Debate, Typhoon Rail Recovery3 stories
Other country briefings
- Brazil — New SAC Rules, Volta Redonda Violence
- Argentina — IMF Payment Strain; Cyber Monday Launch
- South Korea — KOSPI Rebounds, Won Rises, Medical Tourism Boost
- India — Delhi Trade Disruption, Sensex Surge, Helicopter Services Halted
- Germany — Fuel Price Cap Plan, Deutsche Bahn Delays
- United Kingdom — UK Evacuations Over Safety, Skilled Migrants Boost
- France — Student Protests Persist, Mondial Relay Expands Hiring
- Italy — Cyberattacks Hit Italian Supermarkets, Schools Close
- Portugal — Public Sector Strike Hits Services, Minho Rail Disrupted
- Turkey — Turkey-AB Agriculture Trade Rises, Istanbul Traffic Disruption
- Senegal — Senegal Faces Energy Crisis, University Strike
- United States — Data Center Bans, Cyberattacks on Alert Apps
- China — PBOC's $15B Asset Swap, Chinese Stocks Rebound
- Mexico — Matamoros Troop Deployment, Jalisco Water Crisis
- Canada — Ontario Speeds Mining Approvals, Time Change Ends
- Spain — Blocus Arrests in Barcelona, Ibex 35 Rises
- Poland — Tax Changes Proposed, Gas Bill Support Planned
- Netherlands — Dutch Tax Plan Delayed, Supermarket Cyberattack
- Russia — Russia's Energy Strategy, Ukraine Power Outages
- Ukraine — Power Cuts Widen, Kyiv Transport Disrupted
- South Africa — SAHRC Blames Water Crisis, AGOA Trade Uncertainty
- Nigeria — SSANU Strike Begins, Eurobond Yields Rise
- Egypt — Egypt Cuts Spending, Banque du Caire IPO
- Morocco — Transport Subsidy Extended, Weather Alerts Issued
- Kenya — IMF Urges Tax Reform, Cybersecurity Boost
- Indonesia — Tax Incentives Reviewed, Flood Warnings Issued
- Malaysia — Flooding Disrupts Subang; Foreigners Banned from Bazaars
- Israel — Cybersecurity Alert, Herzog's Coalition Strategy
- Colombia — Alicorp Expands in Cali, Fiscal Rescue Law Backed
- Iran — Oil Prices Drop, Iran-Africa Trade Surges
- Lebanon — Lebanon Power Cuts, Army Security Operations
- Jordan — Gold Prices Rise, Border Security Tightened
- Iraq — IMF Talks with Iraq, PM's Regional Tour
- Syria — Tax Reforms and Bakery Violations Impact Business
- Yemen — Yemen Cabinet Reshuffle; Houthi Attack in Lahij
- Vietnam — VN-Index Drops, HCMC Attracts New Investments