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Thursday, 5 November 2026English edition
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The Geopolitician

Country risk, from the local press

Iraq country watch

Exposure to Iraq means watching the Central Bank and the dinar, dollar-auction and sanctions compliance rules, oil output, OPEC quotas and the Kurdistan pipeline, Baghdad's budget and contract awards, security incidents and power cuts, the ports of Umm Qasr and Basra, and the oil, construction, power and telecoms groups that carry foreign contracts. We read Al Sumaria, Shafaq News, Rudaw, Iraqi News and Al Sabah every morning.

Stable Latest Iraq briefing: 2 November 2026 →

Vigilance

No active vigilance flag · rules: Heightened vigilance for staff and travel · Pressure surge · Media polarisation spike

Flare-up watch

Calm (0.4)

Composite of the day's departure scores (z) against the country's own history — internal tension 0.25, safety & health 0.20, agenda divergence 0.20, framing gap 0.15, media attention 0.20; a missing component drops out and the others are renormalised. Calm below 1.2 · Watch to 1.5 · High above. Needs 14 days of history on two components. Method →

Direction, last 30 days

Deteriorating 3 · Mixed 8 · Stable 6 · Improving 8 · No briefing 4

No edition on 1 Nov, 3 Nov — fewer than 3 qualifying stories from 2 outlets that day.

Risk pressure, last 30 days

Risk categoryLevelChange on the previous 30 days (points)Stories, 30 daysLast signal
Regulatory riskHigh▲ +912Iraqi oil executive jailed for corruption, ordered to repay $37m
Operational riskElevated▲ +22Iraq shuts Sheeb border crossing with Iran
Stability riskQuiet=0—
Safety & health riskElevated▲ +22US State Department issues 'Do Not Travel' advisory
Corporate riskHigh▲ +1516Iraq and Roche Sign Healthcare Deal
Financial riskHigh▲ +916US Dollar Rates Steady at 168,000 Dinars in Iraq
Trade riskHigh▲ +2418Iraq to Sign Internet Transit Deals in Doha
Political riskHigh▲ +89IMF to Start Programme Discussions with Iraq

Pressure index: Normal (+0.9) — driven by politics

Easing ≤ −0.5 · Normal to +1.6 · Rising to +1.8 · Surging above — the 30-day pressure read against the country's own history.

Pressure = sum of story severities reported by the local press over 30 days (1 minor · 2 material · 3 severe). A press signal, not a credit rating. Levels: Quiet 0 · Low 1–3 · Elevated 4–8 · High 9+ points. In the change column, — = no earlier 30-day window yet. Method →

Pressure over 90 days

Regulatory risk

High

Operational risk

Elevated

Stability risk

Quiet

Safety & health risk

Elevated

Corporate risk

High

Financial risk

High

Trade risk

High

Political risk

High

Each curve is the 30-day pressure score of that category, recomputed every day. A press signal, not a forecast. Method →

Attention: Iraq in the world's press

Yesterday 476 articles · 12% below the 30-day average · today so far 94 · led by the press of Iraq, Iran, Japan, Syria, Lebanon

Articles mentioning the country across the outlets we read, vs the 30-day average. Method →

Media polarisation

Normal · 100% of the smaller camp's topics not shared by the other · usually 96%

· independent 131 · opposition 10 articles

Share of the day's topics covered by only one of the two camps read (independent vs opposition outlets; state outlets count as pro-government), from the outlets we read. Media polarisation, not public opinion. Method →

Media we read

10 outlets read every day

  • Ahewar.org · independent
  • Alsumeria · independent
  • Awene News Kurdish · opposition
  • Iraq Business News · independent
  • Iraqi Media Network · independent
  • Iraqi News · independent
  • Lvin Press Kurdish · independent
  • Nasiriyah · independent
  • PUKmedia Kurdish · independent
  • Sbeiy.com · independent

How we rate outlets →

Cited, last 30 days

  • Iraq Business News 47
  • Iraqi News 40
  • PUKmedia Kurdish 7
  • Iraqi Media Network 3
  • Ahewar.org 1

Latest briefing

Stable

Business conditions in Iraq remain stable with the IMF initiating financial discussions and the PM's regional tour promoting diplomatic ties. Currency exchange rates also show stability, aiding financial planning.

Current Federal Reserve Notes as of June 2018
Current Federal Reserve Notes as of June 2018 — US Federal Reserve, Public domain via Wikimedia Commons

IMF Talks with Iraq, PM's Regional Tour

Read the latest briefing →

Previous briefings

  1. ImprovingIraq Signs Healthcare and Internet Transit Deals3 stories
  2. ImprovingIraq Signs Gas Deal, Water Talks with Egypt3 stories
  3. StableIraq-Syria Oil Talks, Oil Executive Jailed3 stories
  4. ImprovingIraq Court Lifts Foreign Ownership Ban, Pharma Imports Approved3 stories
  5. ImprovingIraq Investment Push, WTO Talks, Dollar Steady3 stories
  6. MixedIraq-Jordan MOUs, Simba Telecom License Risk4 stories
  7. MixedIraq Sells Oil at Discounts, Advances Port Projects3 stories
  8. DeterioratingUS Travel Advisory, Chevron's Oil Field Move3 stories
  9. MixedOil Price Rise, Volvo Job Cuts, Gold Price Drop3 stories
  10. ImprovingExxonMobil's Seawater Project, New Vessel System3 stories
  11. DeterioratingIraq Closes Iran Border, Tanker Incident Off Al Faw3 stories
  12. MixedGulf Keystone Merger, Iraq-China Oil Exports Drop3 stories
  13. MixedIraq Boosts Oil Exports, Bank Sanctioned by US4 stories
  14. MixedForex Rule Change, US Lifts Exchange Restrictions3 stories
  15. StableIraq Cuts Oil Discounts, Baghdad Hosts OIC Summit3 stories
  16. ImprovingIraq Completes Cabinet, Investment in Hor Al-Dalmaj3 stories
  17. StableSOMO Compensates IOCs, Iraq-Kuwait Flights Resume3 stories
  18. ImprovingIraq Waives Food Tariffs, Solar Talks with JICA3 stories
  19. StableIraq Customs Revenue Rises, Telecom Faces Subscriber Loss3 stories
  20. MixedIraq Investment Law Changes, Oil Price Drop4 stories
  21. ImprovingIraqi Graft Crackdown, Seismic Survey Deal3 stories
  22. StableIraq Develops Trade Policy, Dinar Rate Defended3 stories
  23. MixedIraq Oil Discount, Syria Route, Hormuz Traffic Falls3 stories
  24. DeterioratingIraqi Dinar Devaluation, Fibre Deal Expands Connectivity3 stories
  25. StableEU-Iraq Trade Talks, Network Theft Arrests Rise3 stories
  26. MixedIraq Stimulates Growth, Dollar Surges, Lafarge CEO Change3 stories
  27. MixedIraq's Dollar Rises, Oil Transit Milestone3 stories
  28. ImprovingIraq-Germany Urban Talks, Al-Zaidi's Oil Vision3 stories
  29. StableIraq-Egypt Transport Talks, Iraq-Oman Anti-Corruption Pact3 stories

Other country briefings

Global daily report →