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Friday, 6 November 2026English edition
The Geopolitician

Country risk, from the local press

Since their last briefing, 22 countries changed direction: Colombia: Mixed → Deteriorating · Italy: Mixed → Deteriorating · Netherlands: Mixed → Deteriorating · Senegal: Stable → Deteriorating · South Korea: Stable → Deteriorating · Turkey: Mixed → Deteriorating · United Kingdom: Mixed → Deteriorating · China: Stable → Mixed · and 14 more →

Country watch

What happened? One line per country: the day's lead story and the editorial direction — the day read against the country's previous briefing.

CountryLast 7 daysCategoryLead storyDirection, latest briefing

Risk pressure by country

Where is pressure already heavy? Thirty days of reported severity, summed — a level, not a movement.

+ 25 more countries, ranked the same way →

Pressure = sum of story severities reported by the local press over 30 days (1 minor · 2 material · 3 severe). A press signal, not a credit rating. Levels: Quiet 0 · Low 1–3 · Elevated 4–8 · High 9+ points. Method →

Where pressure is highest this week

Where is pressure highest? The eight highest index values this week, each against its own normal.

CountryLevelPressure indexDriven byArticles

  1. JordanSurging+2.2RegulationSee the articles
  2. Libyasignals onlySurging+2.1MarketsSee the articles
  3. Pakistansignals onlySurging+2.1Safety & healthSee the articles
  4. ColombiaSurging+2.0Internal tensionSee the articles
  5. Palestinian Territoriessignals onlyRising+1.8MarketsSee the articles
  6. Greecesignals onlyRising+1.8CompaniesSee the articles
  7. Cameroonsignals onlyRising+1.7DisruptionSee the articles
  8. Romaniasignals onlyRising+1.7Safety & healthSee the articles

Index = weighted mean of how far each category sits from the country's own previous 90 days (extremes capped; internal tension and safety & health weigh 1.2, companies 0.6). Easing ≤ −0.5 · Normal ≤ +1.6 · Rising ≤ +1.8 · Surging above. Needs 30 days of history. Rows tagged “signals only” come from counted articles, without a written briefing. A press signal, not a rating. Method →

Signals

What is unusual today? Countries where the local press departs from its usual pattern — worth a second look, not a forecast.

Flare-up watch

The lead alert: internal tension, safety & health, agenda divergence, framing gap and media attention, combined into one score per country.

+ 2 more countries at Watch — all countries →

Calm below 1.2 · Watch to 1.5 · High above — the day's departure from the country's own pattern.

Signals consistent with rising crisis risk. A composite of press signals, not a forecast.

Attention spikes today

Volume only: the world's press is unusually busy with this country today.

No spike today — the busiest against their own 30-day average:

  • Paraguaysignals onlycoverage ×2.0 vs 30-day average

Vigilance today

Standing flags from fixed rules; each stays up until its condition clears.

+ 10 more vigilance flags — all countries →

Rules on press signals, not travel advice: each flag names the days and the articles that triggered it. Method →

Pressure across the countries we read

The background: mean pressure across the briefing countries, category by category.

  • Regulatory risk
  • Operational risk
  • Stability risk
  • Safety & health risk
  • Corporate risk
  • Financial risk
  • Trade risk
  • Political risk

Mean of the per-country 30-day pressure scores, across the 37 countries with a daily briefing. A press signal, not a forecast. Method →

Brazil · Regulation · 5 November 2026

Lula's government sets 'Imposto do Pecado' rates

Business conditions in Brazil remain stable with the introduction of a new selective tax and the maintenance of the Selic rate. These developments affect costs in retail and automotive sectors, while financial conditions remain unchanged.

person holding blue labeled bottle
Abstral Official / Unsplash

The Brazilian government has published a provisional measure setting the rates for the new selective tax, known as 'Imposto do Pecado', according to O Globo. This tax, part of the recent tax reform, targets products deemed harmful to health or the environment, such as vehicles, cigarettes, and alcohol. The measure requires approval by Congress to become permanent law. The initial term is 60 days, extendable by another 60 days. The tax is expected to increase costs for these products.

Impact Retailers and manufacturers of vehicles, cigarettes, and alcohol face increased costs due to the new selective tax rates.

Read the briefing →

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