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Wednesday, 4 November 2026English edition
The Geopolitician

Country risk, from the local press

Since their last briefing, 28 countries changed direction: Brazil: Stable → Deteriorating · Colombia: Stable → Deteriorating · France: Mixed → Deteriorating · Germany: Mixed → Deteriorating · Israel: Mixed → Deteriorating · Russia: Stable → Deteriorating · Spain: Mixed → Deteriorating · United Kingdom: Mixed → Deteriorating · and 20 more →

Country watch

What happened? One line per country: the day's lead story and the editorial direction — the day read against the country's previous briefing.

CountryLast 7 daysCategoryLead storyDirection, latest briefing

Risk pressure by country

Where is pressure already heavy? Thirty days of reported severity, summed — a level, not a movement.

+ 25 more countries, ranked the same way →

Pressure = sum of story severities reported by the local press over 30 days (1 minor · 2 material · 3 severe). A press signal, not a credit rating. Levels: Quiet 0 · Low 1–3 · Elevated 4–8 · High 9+ points. Method →

Where pressure is highest this week

Where is pressure highest? The eight highest index values this week, each against its own normal.

CountryLevelPressure indexDriven byArticles

  1. Libyasignals onlySurging+2.1MarketsSee the articles
  2. Pakistansignals onlySurging+2.1Safety & healthSee the articles
  3. JordanSurging+2.0PoliticsSee the articles
  4. Palestinian Territoriessignals onlySurging+1.9MarketsSee the articles
  5. ColombiaSurging+1.9RegulationSee the articles
  6. Greecesignals onlySurging+1.9CompaniesSee the articles
  7. Romaniasignals onlyRising+1.8Safety & healthSee the articles
  8. Mozambiquesignals onlyRising+1.8CompaniesSee the articles

Index = weighted mean of how far each category sits from the country's own previous 90 days (extremes capped; internal tension and safety & health weigh 1.2, companies 0.6). Easing ≤ −0.5 · Normal ≤ +1.6 · Rising ≤ +1.8 · Surging above. Needs 30 days of history. Rows tagged “signals only” come from counted articles, without a written briefing. A press signal, not a rating. Method →

Signals

What is unusual today? Countries where the local press departs from its usual pattern — worth a second look, not a forecast.

Flare-up watch

The lead alert: internal tension, safety & health, agenda divergence, framing gap and media attention, combined into one score per country.

+ 12 more countries at Watch — all countries →

Calm below 1.2 · Watch to 1.5 · High above — the day's departure from the country's own pattern.

Signals consistent with rising crisis risk. A composite of press signals, not a forecast.

Vigilance today

Standing flags from fixed rules; each stays up until its condition clears.

+ 10 more vigilance flags — all countries →

Rules on press signals, not travel advice: each flag names the days and the articles that triggered it. Method →

Pressure across the countries we read

The background: mean pressure across the briefing countries, category by category.

  • Regulatory risk
  • Operational risk
  • Stability risk
  • Safety & health risk
  • Corporate risk
  • Financial risk
  • Trade risk
  • Political risk

Mean of the per-country 30-day pressure scores, across the 37 countries with a daily briefing. A press signal, not a forecast. Method →

Brazil · Regulation · 3 November 2026

Brazil sets selective tax rates for harmful products

Business conditions in Brazil are deteriorating due to the new selective tax affecting retailers and a severe health crisis in Manaus impacting public services.

Imagens de Brasília - Ministério da Fazenda. Foto: Pedro França/Agência Senado
Imagens de Brasília - Ministério da Fazenda. Foto: Pedro França/Agência Senado — Agência Senado from Brasilia, CC BY 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons

The Brazilian government is set to publish a provisional measure establishing the rates for the new Selective Tax, according to O Globo. Finance Minister Dario Durigan stated the tax, part of the tax reform, targets products harmful to health and the environment. Known as the "sin tax," it will come into effect in February, following the mandatory 90-day period after publication. This tax aims to discourage consumption of these products by increasing their prices.

Impact Retailers of products deemed harmful face increased costs from February due to the new Selective Tax.

Read the briefing →

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